• Advertising
  • Disclaimer
  • Copy Right
  • Contact us
  • About us
WTM News
  • Home
  • entertainment
    • All
    • games
    • movies
    • music
    • sports
    '1899': The creators assure that they are already working on the next seasons and a possible ending

    ‘1899’: The creators assure that they are already working on the next seasons and a possible ending

    Las películas españolas que más esperamos en 2023

    Las películas españolas que más esperamos en 2023

    From 'Appointment in St. Louis' to 'Fifteen Days of Pleasure': 10 Great Christmas Musicals in Film History

    From ‘Appointment in St. Louis’ to ‘Fifteen Days of Pleasure’: 10 Great Christmas Musicals in Film History

    'Dreamland' review, by Jason Momoa on Netflix

    ‘Dreamland’ review, by Jason Momoa on Netflix

    Review, 'Kings vs. Santa': Family Christmas spirit with a thug twist

    Review, ‘Kings vs. Santa’: Family Christmas spirit with a thug twist

    release date, cast, synopsis

    release date, cast, synopsis

  • business
    • All
    • startups
    How to Buy Cryptocurrency

    How to Buy Cryptocurrency

    The first retail site in the Middle East

    The first retail site in the Middle East!

    Submit your projects to duty cope professional freelancers!

    Submit your projects to duty cope professional freelancers!

    bitumen 60/70

    Iran Bitumen

    Study Smart: Tips and Tricks to Ace the GED Test

    Study Smart: Tips and Tricks to Ace the GED Test

    Things to Remember When Taking the GED Math Test

    Things to Remember When Taking the GED Math Test

    DutyCope is the newest freelance platform

    Dutycope is the newest freelance platform

    What plans does NASA have to continue working with Russia?

    What plans does NASA have to continue working with Russia?

    Dutycope, the introduction of one of the best freelance sites

    Dutycope, the introduction of one of the best freelance sites

  • Technology
    • All
    • apps
    • gadget
    • mobile
    profesiones tecnológicas tecnología circular

    Circular technology: this is how it will evolve

    Elon Musk's biographer: "For him, chaos is standard operating procedure" |  Technology

    Elon Musk’s biographer: “For him, chaos is standard operating procedure” | Technology

    Roberto Lopez Familia Martínez

    Interview with Roberto López, Corporate CTO Familia Martínez

    Cloudera Data Platform One

    Cloudera Data Platform One, accessible data analytics

    Cloud services to solve complex IT problems

    SAP deploys the first public cloud project at Cepsa

    appian world data fabric

    Appian joins the Low-Code Data Fabric

    Trending Tags

  • lifestyle
    • All
    • foods
    • health
    • travel
    Body Contouring

    Common Types of Body Contouring Methods

    Cyruscrafts decorative handicrafts

    Iranian Decorative Handicrafts

    3 Days in Dubai – Where to Visit in Dubai

    3 Days in Dubai – Where to Visit in Dubai

    Ata Ghotbi and the road to success

    Ata Ghoutbi and the Road to Success

    5 ways to open frozen pipes without damaging the pipe

    5 ways to open frozen pipes without damaging the pipe

    Why is it better not to use toilet paper?

    Why is it better not to use toilet paper?

    Trending Tags

  • Review
    Review of the first part of the fifth season of the Money Heist series

    Review of the first part of the fifth season of the Money Heist series

    Introduction of Solar Ash game

    Introducing and reviewing the interesting game Solar Ash

    Review Huawei WATCH FIT smartwatch

    Review Huawei WATCH FIT smartwatch

  • Videos
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • entertainment
    • All
    • games
    • movies
    • music
    • sports
    '1899': The creators assure that they are already working on the next seasons and a possible ending

    ‘1899’: The creators assure that they are already working on the next seasons and a possible ending

    Las películas españolas que más esperamos en 2023

    Las películas españolas que más esperamos en 2023

    From 'Appointment in St. Louis' to 'Fifteen Days of Pleasure': 10 Great Christmas Musicals in Film History

    From ‘Appointment in St. Louis’ to ‘Fifteen Days of Pleasure’: 10 Great Christmas Musicals in Film History

    'Dreamland' review, by Jason Momoa on Netflix

    ‘Dreamland’ review, by Jason Momoa on Netflix

    Review, 'Kings vs. Santa': Family Christmas spirit with a thug twist

    Review, ‘Kings vs. Santa’: Family Christmas spirit with a thug twist

    release date, cast, synopsis

    release date, cast, synopsis

  • business
    • All
    • startups
    How to Buy Cryptocurrency

    How to Buy Cryptocurrency

    The first retail site in the Middle East

    The first retail site in the Middle East!

    Submit your projects to duty cope professional freelancers!

    Submit your projects to duty cope professional freelancers!

    bitumen 60/70

    Iran Bitumen

    Study Smart: Tips and Tricks to Ace the GED Test

    Study Smart: Tips and Tricks to Ace the GED Test

    Things to Remember When Taking the GED Math Test

    Things to Remember When Taking the GED Math Test

    DutyCope is the newest freelance platform

    Dutycope is the newest freelance platform

    What plans does NASA have to continue working with Russia?

    What plans does NASA have to continue working with Russia?

    Dutycope, the introduction of one of the best freelance sites

    Dutycope, the introduction of one of the best freelance sites

  • Technology
    • All
    • apps
    • gadget
    • mobile
    profesiones tecnológicas tecnología circular

    Circular technology: this is how it will evolve

    Elon Musk's biographer: "For him, chaos is standard operating procedure" |  Technology

    Elon Musk’s biographer: “For him, chaos is standard operating procedure” | Technology

    Roberto Lopez Familia Martínez

    Interview with Roberto López, Corporate CTO Familia Martínez

    Cloudera Data Platform One

    Cloudera Data Platform One, accessible data analytics

    Cloud services to solve complex IT problems

    SAP deploys the first public cloud project at Cepsa

    appian world data fabric

    Appian joins the Low-Code Data Fabric

    Trending Tags

  • lifestyle
    • All
    • foods
    • health
    • travel
    Body Contouring

    Common Types of Body Contouring Methods

    Cyruscrafts decorative handicrafts

    Iranian Decorative Handicrafts

    3 Days in Dubai – Where to Visit in Dubai

    3 Days in Dubai – Where to Visit in Dubai

    Ata Ghotbi and the road to success

    Ata Ghoutbi and the Road to Success

    5 ways to open frozen pipes without damaging the pipe

    5 ways to open frozen pipes without damaging the pipe

    Why is it better not to use toilet paper?

    Why is it better not to use toilet paper?

    Trending Tags

  • Review
    Review of the first part of the fifth season of the Money Heist series

    Review of the first part of the fifth season of the Money Heist series

    Introduction of Solar Ash game

    Introducing and reviewing the interesting game Solar Ash

    Review Huawei WATCH FIT smartwatch

    Review Huawei WATCH FIT smartwatch

  • Videos
No Result
View All Result
WTM News
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • entertainment
  • business
  • Technology
  • lifestyle
  • Review
  • Videos
Home Technology

Can the future of the war in Ukraine be predicted? It’s what a community of internet tipsters is trying to do | Technology

News writer by News writer
March 24, 2022
in Technology
7 0
A A
0
Can the future of the war in Ukraine be predicted?  It's what a community of internet tipsters is trying to do |  Technology

Can the future of the war in Ukraine be predicted

153
SHARES
235
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Can the future of the war in Ukraine be predicted? It’s what a community of internet tipsters is trying to do | Technology
is the headline of the news that the author of WTM News has collected this article. Stay tuned to WTM News to stay up to date with the latest news on this topic. We ask you to follow us on social networks.

Russian armored vehicle burning in the Ukrainian city of Kharkov.  Photograph taken on February 26, 2022.
Russian armored vehicle burning in the Ukrainian city of Kharkov. Photograph taken on February 26, 2022.Sergei BOBOK (AFP)

The day after Russia invaded Ukraine, one person wrote a message of thanks on a forum: “I just want to say that I moved from kyiv to Lviv on February 13 thanks to this prediction thread and your estimates.[.] I leave Ukraine today. Thank you all”.

The message was left by the user availablegreen in Metaculus, a community dedicated to predicting the future by answering questions like the one that pushed him to leave his city: Will Russia invade Ukraine before 2023? In December, the community prediction said there was a 40% chance. And on February 13, when availablegreen left kyiv, which had 60%. By then, US intelligence was already saying that it was going to happen; many people didn’t believe it, but Metaculus decided to.

The evolution of the prediction to the question of whether Russia would invade Ukraine before 2023.
Metaculus

Prediction communities are booming. In Metaculus, Polymarket, Good Judgment or Insight questions are asked about everything. On politics: Will Macron win the French elections? Very likely (94%). On the pandemic: Will the WHO add a new variant of covid to the list of “worrying” in 2022? Likely (74%). Or about catastrophes: What risk is there in London of dying next month from a nuclear explosion? Some 24 micro-deaths, 24 options out of a million, according to a group of reputable forecasters of which Nuño Sempere from Madrid is a part.

Sempere, who writes a newsletter On these topics, he explained how the platforms work: “Metaculus is a group of people who think that these questions are important, and that having models of the world that are capable of making predictions is important. Imagine a collaborative community of the type Wikipedia or Reddit, that instead of writing articles or selecting interesting content, generates investigations and a probability that summarizes them”.

These predictions were popularized by three Pennsylvania professors—Philip Tetlock, Barbara Mellers, and Don Moore—who in 2013 won a competition funded by US intelligence. They showed that some people are better at doing this, whom they would later call super-forecasters, and that by adding their forecasts, a team of generalists could match or beat the CIA experts.

But the community that has emerged goes further.

How do they do that?

Forecasters use open sources. They exploit the information that is on the internet, from scientific studies, to press news or public data. As Sam Freedman has said: “Anyone on Twitter can, if they filter the information right, be better informed about the real-time course of the war than Lyndon Johnson is about Vietnam.”

In addition, the recipe is known to predict better. First, you need a certain kind of look: quantitative, probabilistic, parsimonious, willing to change your mind. Second, it helps to use aggregation methods better than a median (for example, it is convenient to extreme: if two people with different information tell you that the probability of rain is 50%, you should bet that it will rain with plus 50% chance). And third, something logical, but often forgotten: you have to have a real will to hit.

How much are they right?

In the community they are not very satisfied with their successes in this war, although it seems to me meritorious to have said in January that the invasion was something probable.

I have also followed another prediction of yours that started out unsuccessful, but moved quickly. I found it useful to organize my coverage: Would kyiv fall under Russian control before April 1? On the second day of the invasion, Metaculus saw the fall as likely (80%), as did most observers who expected a rapid advance by the Russians. But they soon corrected.

On the fifth day the probability had dropped to 67%, on March 6 to 37% and on the 15th, two weeks before the deadline, it was only 10%. Even more interesting: now they believe that the probability that the capital will hold out for another two months, until June 1, is 80-85%. Will they succeed?

The evolution of the prediction to the question of whether Russia will control kyiv on June 1, 2022.
Metaculus

A success of Metaculus has been his predictions during the covid pandemic, as he explained John Cambeiro from New York, who I met when he was leading the ranking of the best tipsters, and who now works for the platform. “By December 2, the Metaculus forecasters successfully predicted that omicron would rapidly overtake delta.” Also that it had “intrinsically higher transmissibility, which would erode the protection conferred by vaccines and even be less lethal than delta.”

Of course, the people of Metaculus are far from infallible oracles. They almost never offer strong predictions. But they have been proven correct in one key sense: they are well calibrated. Events to which they assign a probability of 60% occur 60% of the time (more or less), and those with probability 90% occur 90% (more or less).

Why do they do it?

There are platforms where you can predict to earn money or cryptocurrency, but the main reasons, at the moment, seem to be hobby and commitment. If the internet has taught us anything, it is that people can spend a lot of time on their interests.

For Sempere it is not a game: “Sports betting seems absurd to me and I don’t see the point in it. They are structured to generate addiction.” He also predicts in contests and paid markets, but finds advantages and disadvantages: “It allows you to invest more effort. But collaborating is more difficult.”

The key is that both Sempere and Cambeiro believe their work is useful and has a lot of potential. We all have to make quick decisions and under uncertainty. This is obvious for a mayor or a manager, but it is the same for the man who closed his bar in the pandemic or for the young woman who decides not to buy a house for fear of the recession. These platforms, as Sempere says, can produce probabilities about “how long a quarantine is going to last, or about who is going to be the next president.” They won’t decide for you, but they can shed light and inform your decisions. Cambeiro emphasizes that it is already happening: “Many people have made decisions with our forecasts with covid. Many users and I were taking precautions before anyone else.”

Can this be the case availablegreen? I can’t be sure it’s true, although I’ve talked to him and it sure seems like it. A young Belarusian who lived in kyiv and who in February, already worried, remembered having read about these platforms (“I went to see what the prediction markets were saying”). Trusting in them, and in what he saw in New York Times and on Twitter, he made a decision: to leave the city for Lviv, from where he later traveled to Warsaw.

You can follow EL PAÍS TECNOLOGÍA at Facebook and Twitter or sign up here to receive our weekly newsletter.

Exclusive content for subscribers

read without limits

Source: elpais.com

Tags: communityfutureinternetpredictedTechnologytipstersUkrainewar
Previous Post

The Ukrainian Foreign Minister: “Russia will pay for its war crimes for decades” | International

Next Post

Russia is reluctant to leave the G-20 so as not to become an international pariah | International

News writer

News writer

I try to find the best news for you and publish it on WTM News. Follow my articles to become an up-to-date person!

Related Posts

profesiones tecnológicas tecnología circular
Technology

Circular technology: this is how it will evolve

November 23, 2022
Elon Musk's biographer: "For him, chaos is standard operating procedure" |  Technology
Technology

Elon Musk’s biographer: “For him, chaos is standard operating procedure” | Technology

November 23, 2022
Roberto Lopez Familia Martínez
Technology

Interview with Roberto López, Corporate CTO Familia Martínez

November 23, 2022
Cloudera Data Platform One
Technology

Cloudera Data Platform One, accessible data analytics

November 22, 2022
Cloud services to solve complex IT problems
Technology

SAP deploys the first public cloud project at Cepsa

November 22, 2022
appian world data fabric
Technology

Appian joins the Low-Code Data Fabric

November 22, 2022
Next Post
Russia is reluctant to leave the G-20 so as not to become an international pariah |  International

Russia is reluctant to leave the G-20 so as not to become an international pariah | International

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

  • Trending
  • Comments
  • Latest
Tesla's new update notifies the driver of tire wear

Tesla’s new update notifies the driver of tire wear

December 16, 2021
'Stranger Things': Jamie Campbell Bower opens up about her secret role for the first time

‘Stranger Things’: Jamie Campbell Bower opens up about her secret role for the first time

May 31, 2022
Introduction of Solar Ash game

Introducing and reviewing the interesting game Solar Ash

July 25, 2021
Time Magazine introduced Elon Musk as the character of 2021!

Time Magazine introduced Elon Musk as the character of 2021!

July 24, 2021
Introduction of Solar Ash game

Introducing and reviewing the interesting game Solar Ash

0
Added the ability to check voice messages before sending to WhatsApp!

Added the ability to check voice messages before sending to WhatsApp!

0
Time Magazine introduced Elon Musk as the character of 2021!

Time Magazine introduced Elon Musk as the character of 2021!

0
Review of the first part of the fifth season of the Money Heist series

Review of the first part of the fifth season of the Money Heist series

0
At least one dead and 19 injured by two explosions at bus stops in Jerusalem |  International

At least one dead and 19 injured by two explosions at bus stops in Jerusalem | International

November 23, 2022
profesiones tecnológicas tecnología circular

Circular technology: this is how it will evolve

November 23, 2022
Elon Musk's biographer: "For him, chaos is standard operating procedure" |  Technology

Elon Musk’s biographer: “For him, chaos is standard operating procedure” | Technology

November 23, 2022
Li Qiang, Xi Jinping's loyal lieutenant |  International

Li Qiang, Xi Jinping’s loyal lieutenant | International

November 23, 2022

Latest News

At least one dead and 19 injured by two explosions at bus stops in Jerusalem |  International

At least one dead and 19 injured by two explosions at bus stops in Jerusalem | International

November 23, 2022
profesiones tecnológicas tecnología circular

Circular technology: this is how it will evolve

November 23, 2022
Elon Musk's biographer: "For him, chaos is standard operating procedure" |  Technology

Elon Musk’s biographer: “For him, chaos is standard operating procedure” | Technology

November 23, 2022
Li Qiang, Xi Jinping's loyal lieutenant |  International

Li Qiang, Xi Jinping’s loyal lieutenant | International

November 23, 2022

Suggest application sites

Weltnachrichten

Nachrichten Star

Dutycope

Freelance sites

Marze Safar

Food Cake

Arabic news

BackPack Travel

Travel Vision

Cooking

Drinks & Foods

WTM News

WTM News is a smart magazine that collects new and important technology news of the world for you from all over the web.
Our goal is to compile the best news so that you can more easily get the latest technology news in the world.

Follow us

News Categories

  • apps
  • business
  • entertainment
  • Environment
  • foods
  • gadget
  • games
  • health
  • lifestyle
  • mobile
  • movies
  • music
  • News
  • Other
  • Review
  • science
  • sports
  • startups
  • Technology
  • travel
  • Videos

Freelancer | Logo design | Hervess | Nachrichten Star | News Pro | Arabic news

Buy sponsor post | Marze Safar | BackPack Travel | Food Cake

How to cook any thinks | Learning how to make cakes and sweets

latest news

Review of the first part of the fifth season of the Money Heist series

The fifth season of Money Heist series

The points given are based solely on the personal taste of
Introduction of Solar Ash game

Solar Ash game

Score against the average score of this game on the site

WTM NEWS Magazine is just a portal for republishing news in various fields. All news will be placed on the site by mentioning the source. WTM NEWS has no legal responsibility for the accuracy of the news and articles and only reposts the news. © 2022 WTM NEWS

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • entertainment
  • business
  • Technology
  • lifestyle
  • Review
  • Videos

WTM NEWS Magazine is just a portal for republishing news in various fields. All news will be placed on the site by mentioning the source. WTM NEWS has no legal responsibility for the accuracy of the news and articles and only reposts the news. © 2022 WTM NEWS

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In

Add New Playlist